Tag Archives: av yes

AV and Election Result: Liberal Democrats Hammered and UK Say's 'NO' to AV

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The Liberal Democrats have been hammered in the British local elections. They lost over 650 councillors and 9 councils as the British public punished the liberal democrats for broken electoral promises.

In a further blow to the Lib Dems, the public decisively voted against the Alternative voting system (68% to 32%). The Lib Dems had insisted on a referendum on AV as part of their coalition agreement with the Conservatives.

Embattled leader Nick Clegg said that they ‘had taken a real knock’. The Lib Dems and Clegg have come in for criticism over broken promises, particularly over issues such as tuition fees.

The Lib Dem wipe out was made all the more painful by the surprising resilience of the conservative vote. Their coalition partners had been expected to lose up to around 900 councillors but actually gained 78 new ones.

The Labour party did not have quite as good a night as was expected. They did however gain almost 800 councillors and 25 councils. They were also very successful in Wales where they won 30 of the 60 seats falling just 1 seat short of a majority. It is not clear whether they will seek to form a coalition or govern alone. The best story for Labour was their large increase in their share of the national vote which rose to 37% (10 points higher than the previous election)

However, there was a disaster for Labour in Scotland (their traditional stronghold) where their support collapsed, as it did in fact for all three main parties. The Scottish National Party (SNP) pulled out a stunning victory and perhaps the story of the night. A few weeks prior to the campaign the SNP had been 10 points behind Labour in the polls but they were able to pull off a remarkable turnaround.

The SNP gained a majority of the Scottish parliamentary seats, this despite a voting system which makes majority’s difficult to obtain. The question is when will they now seek a referendum on independence? Despite the SNPs own popularity, polling suggest only around 30% of Scots actually support independence itself. Prime minister David Cameron has said he will vigorously oppose any break up in the union.

The vote against AV was also much higher than expected. The YES campaign was defeated by more than 2 to 1. The NO campaign successfully overturned polls which had them behind six months earlier. The Labour party had been split over the issue with its members arguing both for and against. A BBC commentator said that, ‘Ed Milliband had been weakened’ by his association with the AV campaign.

The question now is will Clegg be able to hang on as Lib Dem leader? And will the coalition be able to survive? If not we all might be voting again quite soon.

AV: Vote Yes or NO; Reasons For and Against the Alternative Vote

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I’ll be honest this AV debate has me confused and I’m usually pretty certain of where I stand on things. I started off thinking that I was going to vote no but some friends of mine made a strong case to vote yes. So I’m writing this article to help my own thought process and hopefully yours as well.

I’m not going to explain the whole system in detail. With AV instead of having just one vote you have the option but not obligation to also vote for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. preference.

Reasons For and Against

Argument For – More voter choice

The main argument for AV is that it gives voters more choice. Instead of just voting for your first choice you can also indicate you’re second choice and more if you wish. This makes it more likely the candidate will achieve a majority share of the vote.  The argument goes that this will act as a stronger mandate and encourage people to get more involved in the political process.

J’s thoughts

It sounds like a good idea in theory. I imagine many voters would welcome the opportunity to add a second or more preferences to their vote.

J’s concern

Imagine a marginal constituency with the two main competitors Labour and Lib Dem. The Conservatives have no chance of winning.

A strong Labour supporter votes just for the Labour party. He ignore any other preferences because he doesn’t want the Lib Dems to win and he certainly doesn’t want to vote conservative.

A Conservative supporter votes for the Conservatives first and then because he doesn’t want Labour in he puts the Lib Dems as his second choice.

The first and second preferences count for the same and because this is a marginal constituency there is no chance of a majority with the first round of votes. Essentially the Labour supporter’s vote counts once and the Conservative supporter’s vote counts twice. (In the first round he votes conservative, in the second he votes for the lib-dems instead when the conservatives drop out.) Is this fair? AV supporters would argue it is, during any one round everyone is still voting once. I’m not so sure it is fair and this leads me on to the next point against AV.

Argument Against – All preferences have the same Weight

I’m not sure it’s right that someone’s 5th choice has the same weight as someone else’s 1st.  In fact it almost feels undemocratic. Why didn’t they just weight the vote prefences differently! i.e. a first choice counts for more than a second and a second more than a third etc… Increasingly as I write this article I can’t help thinking that the whole system is half baked and badly thought out.

Argument For – Less Tactical Voting

Pro AV supporters argue that the AV system eliminates the need for tactical voting therefore making the system fairer.

J’s thoughts

I do believe that AV will reduce the amount of tactical voting. With the current system many voters vote for parties other than the ones they support because their own parties have no chance of winning. With the AV system you can vote for both your own party (even though it won’t win) and another party as a second choice.

I think we would be kidding ourselves if we thought this would eliminate tactical voting entirely. People will always come up with elaborate ways to support their party. That said I do believe AV would help with the problem of tactical voting.

Argument Against – Time and Cost

There’s no doubt AV will take a lot longer to count (estimates suggest 5 times longer and because of this you will have to pay counters more.) There will also be costs in switching over to the new system. Overall costs have been put at £250million

J’s thoughts

At this time of austerity it does seem stupid to waste money on changing the voting system. That said of the £250 million almost £100million has already been lost on the referendum alone. We might as well spend the other £150 million if AV really is the right system but we better be damn sure.   

Argument For – Fairer and More Engaging

One of the strongest arguments against the current voting system is that people in safe seats feel disempowered. There votes ultimately mean almost nothing since the same party is always bound to win.

J’s thoughts

AV will do very little to solve this problem, safe seats will continue to remain safe. This problem is really more of an argument for proportional representation.

Argument Against – It’s Complicated! Would it Put People Off Voting

Whatever people say about this AV system it’s definitely more complicated than the current system. For me this is the biggest and probably decisive point against AV. The system is complicated.

Do I have to put a second preference? / How many prefences do I or can I put?/When does my 4th preference count? Etc.  !#$%^&*

J’s Thoughts

My biggest concern is that it might discourage people from voting. Am I being patronising? I don’t think so. People are busy and who can be bothered to go through the rules of a voting system? Are you going to vote if you don’t know how the system works. Some will but I fear some will be put off. 1 vote keeps it simple.

My Conclusion

Keep it Simple. I started off writing this article genuinely not sure which way I would vote. I’ve concluded the current system may not be perfect but AV isn’t the right replacement for us. Our democracy is strongest when we keep things simple.