Sometimes you can get emails that are filled with unexpected surprise that you know you have to read twice to make sure that you read it properly. So, naturally, when I received an email about Professor Stephen Hawking and Paddy Power in the same sentence, I had to make sure I read it right. And yes, you read it correctly; they were both in the same sentence. When I got over my initial shock, I read that it was at the Savoy, so thought it may be a stunt and that it was not going to be the event as said in the email. It’s at The Savoy, so I was going! On arrival, I had to go down 3 floors to the Lincoln Room, where the presentation was taking place. As all Savoy venues, they are amazing and beautiful layout. The backdrop with Professor Hawking’s face inside the Paddy Power logo still didn’t instil me with the fact he was going to make an appearance and was probably one of their wacky advertisements. Either side of the backdrop are boards with formulae to How England Can Win The World Cup: 
And how England Can take The Perfect Penalty: 
The equation is given by the Professor for all to see on blackboards, so the general whisper amongst the press is that the gimmick is just for publicity, so everyone seems relaxed and drinking their beverage so that they can get their bit done and go home. That is until Rory Scott, from Paddy Power announces the rules of the presentation and what Professor Hawking will be doing and the rules regarding pictures. All of a sudden, it’s all real and the press are far more excited and attentive! Before the Professor takes the stage, he preps behind the backdrop and naturally the room is silent. The man has an air of presence that almost engulfs the room. A verse and chorus from Prodigy’s Exhale rings from the speaker as a projection of various instances, from 1966 to present day, of England’s trials and tribulations throughout the World Cups. Paddy from Paddy Power introduces the man himself and the room is still silent! It is almost as though the is on bated breath and Paddy says, “Lets hear it for Professor Stephen Hawking”! Before his words are even halfway through, the room erupts into rapturous applause and he begins to speak. The room is slient again to listen to his every word:
“Good morning. Thanks for having me Paddy. I always saw you as slightly anti-intellectual but by inviting me here, you have proved me wrong. “Ever since the dawn of civilization, people have not been content to see events as unconnected and inexplicable. They have craved an understanding of the underlying order in the world. “The World Cup is no different. “Paddy Power recognised that as a theoretical physicist I’m marginally more qualified to make predictions than “Paul the Octopus”. “Analysing data since our triumph at the sixty six World Cup, I have answered two of the biggest questions tormenting fans. One, what are the optimal conditions for England success? And two, how do you score in a penalty shootout? “The technique I have used is called General Logistic Regression Modelling. I won’t go into the ins and outs of it as we will be sitting here well into next season. However, after the conference we will circulate the full research document should you want to have a flick.
“So what are the optimal conditions for England success? Contrary to tabloid opinion, the presence of WAGs is irrelevant. Our chance of triumph can be worked out by looking at a number of environmental, physiological, psychological, political and tactical variables. “Statistically England’s red kit is more successful and we should play four, three, three rather than four, four, two. Psychologists in Germany found red makes teams feel more confident and can lead them to being perceived as more aggressive and dominant. Likewise four-three-three is more positive so the team benefits for similar psychological reasons. “The data shows we also need to hope for a European referee. European referees are more sympathetic to the English game and less sympathetic to ballerinas like Suarez. “Like all animals, the England team are creatures of habit. Being closer to home reduces the negative impact of cultural differences and jetlag. We do better in temperate climates, at low altitudes with kick off as close to the normal three o’clock as possible. “The impact of environmental factors alone is quite staggering. A 5⁰C rise in temperature reduces our chances of winning by 59%. We are twice as likely to win when playing below five hundred metres above sea level. And our chances of winning improve by a third when kicking off at three o’clock local time. “Looking at environmental factors alone, the game in Belo Horizonte against Costa Rica is the best of a bad bunch with England’s opener in Manaus against Italy the most difficult. The searing temperature and late kick off are far from ideal. “Now on to penalties. As we say in science, England ‘couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo’. “I have studied all shootouts since they were introduced at the seventy eight World Cup to have a formula for the perfect penalty. Don’t tell the Germans.
“Let’s start with the technique. Velocity is key. For this reason, get a run up of more than three steps. Give it some welly. There is only a 58% probability of scoring if your run up is three steps or less. “However, velocity is nothing without placement. If only I had whispered this in Chris Waddle’s ear before he sent the ball into orbit in nineteen ninety. Use the side foot rather than laces and you are 10% more likely to score. “The statistics confirm the obvious. Place the ball in the top left or right hand corner for the best chance of success. 84% of penalties in those areas score. The ability of strikers to place the ball results in them being more likely to score than midfielders and defenders. “There is no evidence that it’s advantageous to be left or right footed but bald players and fair haired players are more likely to score. The reason for this is unclear. This will remain one of science’s great mysteries. One last tip from me for Joe Hart. Like Bruce Grobbelaar jump from side to side and you are 18% more likely to make a save. Who would want to be a keeper? As Ruud Guillt once said “a goalkeeper is a goalkeeper because he can’t play football”. “That’s a summary of my findings. I’m going to answer a few of Paddy’s questions then I need to be off.”
The humour and statistics are seamless and show that the inner child is still a huge part of the man. He was given a short interview, by Paddy, before he would be off to do one more interview off stage and then to another venue. For someone that is confined to a wheelchair, he is immensely busy and rarely in one place for long periods of time. However, the responses Professor Hawking gave to the questions posed, still raised smiles from his face. I am sure that Paddy was as enamoured with the Professor as many undoubtedly were listening to him. Considering Paddy Power is a gambling site, they didn’t really press the subject of gambling and it only came up once in conversation:
PP: Do you ever bet?
SH: Not on football or any sport for that matter. My bets tend to be against my fellow theoretical physicist friends about theoretical physics. Does Paddy Power have any odds on black holes being surrounded by firewalls? Then I might be interested. “I want to add, because I bet only on science, I will donate my fee, half to the Motor Neurone Disease Association, and half to the Save the Children’s campaign, for the children of Syria.”
PP: Do you even like football?
SH: Shouting at the television is not for me but each to his own. What drew me to this project was not the love of football but my curiosity. I’m almost quite sad I’m not a football fan as this summer will be a treat for those who are.
PP: But I take it you are supporting England at the World Cup. Is that right?
SH: All mathematics, science and rational thought go out the window here. I am an Englishman and will be cheering our boys all the way to the final in Rio.
PP: Who do you think will win the World Cup?
SH: You would be a fool to overlook Brazil. Hosts have won over 30% of the World Cups. As we know from the study, there are significant environmental and psychological benefits of being close to home. It doesn’t look like a vintage Brazil team to me but I’m sure they have enough quality to lift the World Cup for the sixth time.
PP: Thanks for your time Professor. I’m aware that you have a number of other engagements today so we’ll let you go.
SH: Thank you. No problem. It’s been a pleasure.
Professor Hawking had given permission for pictures to be taken at the end of the presentation and cameras seemed to come out of the woodwork for the photo opportunity. Had someone walked in on the flash-fest they would have assumed it was fame hungry celeb, but truth be told, it is a rare opportunity and one not many would turn down at any given point. He sat calmly and composed knowing that he would be doing more interviews shortly after and left with no fuss and to his next interviewer. Even though Paddy didn’t have the pull of Professor Hawking, many lined up for interviews and questions for their respective publications and channels. Those, like myself waited until an opportunity arose to gather a viewpoint and any other interesting information.
When I finally got to speak to Paddy, he was still cheerful and accommodating as he was toward his first interviewer. I asked him if he thought of doing a comparison with all the teams in the England draw for the World Cup, but he said that it was all about the England team, so they were the only real focus. He also said that it took Professor Hawking a couple of weeks to formulate all the information and give such condensed presentation and it exceeded his expectations on many levels, considering Paddy Power had approached him a couple of months prior to the formulation of all the information. I asked if he thought of maybe getting a psychologist for the next presentation and said it was something he would consider, so we may be following up this with another perspective of a Paddy Power special! Both myself and Paddy were amazed at the level in which Professor Hawking went into regarding the actual percentages to what we would have thought and even the fact that the team should know these facts before hand and we wondered if they even thought that would be a factor to help in any way. Having met Professor Hawking a few years ago, at Cambridge, Paddy is still blown away by the charisma and generosity he displays and the fact his whole fee went to 2 charities is amazing! He is definitely young at heart and has a twinkle in his eye, charming and Paddy admitted he was overawed, which made me feel better, as I too was overawed at the presence of him. Breaking the structure of the flow of questioning, I asked him if he got the reaction that people may have thought the email was a joke and that Professor Hawking wouldn’t turn up for such an event. He did say that bringing it from another perspective makes the game more interesting and seen as more logical and gives food for thought and may interest a wider audience just because of this information, so it could tune more people in for different reasons. Naturally, I asked him about the betting aspect and if England were to get into the final. Unsurprisingly, we both agreed that betting would be something that everyone would have a flutter were England to get into the final and the nation would be hooked into seeing if England would recreate history. I was surprised that even though Paddy it Irish (!) he had a sense of preferring to have England succeed over the thought of the flutter frenzy, which will please many people, but I have a feeling human nature will dominate should England get to the final. Having a flutter changes the whole feel to a game, especially if you have a feeling your team will do well! Paddy admits that getting involved in the hype of the world cup is not selling, but just enjoying being part of it! When pushed for his ideal final, he said for England Vs Brazil in a penalty shootout and even if the betting odds of that happening are exceedingly high. I feel the country would come to a standstill.
I would also like to take time to thank Paddy, Rory and Paddy Power for making a meeting that I never thought would happen in my lifetime and meeting Professor Stephen Hawking was every bit as amazing as I thought. Making me feel like 10 year old meeting their hero and feeling that maybe, just maybe I can be as amazing as he is too.
