Sarah Coles, head of finance, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“2023 hasn’t been a golden year for our finances – with rising prices, mortgage rates and tax – and falling growth, house prices and morale. On paper, 2024 is looking more positive, with inflation, tax rates and childcare bills all set to drop. However, that’s not the full picture, because most tax thresholds have been frozen, and two of them are actually set to fall, so there’s a good chance a huge chunk of people will still be worse off by the time we struggle to the end of 2024.
1 January: new energy price cap
The energy price cap will rise £94 (5%) from £1,834 to £1,928, after conflict in the Middle East sent oil and gas prices higher. It’s worth bearing in mind that this isn’t a fixed cap on the most you can pay: it’s a cap on prices for the average user. If you burn through more energy, or live in a large or draughty house, you could see prices rise even further.
6 January: National insurance cut
Class 1 NICs, which are paid on earnings between £12,570 and £50,270, will be cut by 2 percentage points, from 12% to 10%, saving an average of £304 for basic rate taxpayers, £647 for higher rate taxpayers, and £707 for additional rate taxpayers. Sadly this isn’t the shot in the arm it appears, because frozen income tax and National Insurance thresholds will still mean we pay more tax in 2024.
31 January: Tax return deadline
March: Rail fares rise
Normally the government uses July's Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation to determine the increase in regulated fares the following year – although at times of very high inflation it can cap this. Last year the rise was effective from 5 March.
23 March: Temporary cut to fuel duty ends
The 5p fuel duty cut was announced in March 2022, then extended another 12 months in early 2023. Unless we hear otherwise before this date, this is when it ends. However, we’re likely to get a Spring Budget before this point, so there’s hope.
31 March: Energy price guarantee ends
The scheme, restricting average bills to no more than £3,000 for an average user, officially ends today – although the price cap is highly likely to have been below the guarantee since July 2023, so the guarantee hasn’t been called on since then.
April: 15 hours of free childcare for the under twos
Working parents will receive 15 free hours a week for children under the age of two, as the first step along the road to secure 30 hours of free childcare for all children from nine months to the start of school between now and September 2025.
1 April: New energy price cap comes into effect
This is predicted to fall slightly from the January level.
1 April: TV licence fee rises
The government is responsible for setting the level of the licence fee. In 2022, it announced that the fee would rise in line with inflation for four years from 2024.
1 April: Car tax rises
This will rise in line with RPI.
1 April: Council tax rises
Council tax rises on 1 April, but we’ve not yet had confirmation of how much by.
1 April: National Living wage and minimum wage rise takes effect
On the 25th anniversary of the minimum wage, the National Living Wage will rise to £11.44 an hour – up almost 10% from £10.42, and the age threshold will fall from 23 to 21. 18-20-year-olds will also see pay rise to £8.60 per hour – up £1.11. The minimum hourly wage for apprentices will rise too.
1 April: Water bill price changes come into effect
Several factors are used to determine changes in water bills, including the October inflation figure of 4.6%.
1 April: Air passenger duty rises
Rates will rise with RPI, so the cheapest tax on domestic flights will be £7 and on international flights it will be £13. The rate increases with the class of the flight and the distance, so an economy flight of more than 5,500 miles will be taxed at £92, a business class seat on the same flight £202, and a seat on a private jet flying the same route £607.
1 April: Prescription charge changes could kick in
NHS prescription charges in England rose 30p in April 2023. The previous year those charges had been frozen.
1 April: Fuel duty rise could be implemented
At the moment, the fuel duty rise is set to go ahead – rising with RPI. This is priced into the government’s calculations, but there’s a reasonable expectation the Chancellor will announce a fuel duty freeze closer to the time.
6 April: Dividend and capital gains tax changes
The threshold for dividend tax will be cut to £500 and the capital gains tax threshold to £3,000.
6 April: ISA changes
From this point, you will be able to pay into multiple ISAs of the same type in a tax year - and will be able to transfer slices of ISA money you paid in during the current tax year too (previously it was all or nothing).
It will be possible to hold long term asset funds and open ended property funds in an innovative finance ISA, although we don’t yet know whether any providers will make them available.
The minimum age to open a cash ISA will rise to 18, closing the loophole that allows 16 and 17-year-olds to have a JISA and a cash ISA allowance in the same tax year.
6 April: Tax thresholds remain frozen
This stealth tax will have an enormous impact on our finances this year, and every year until 2028. The personal allowance will stick at £12,570, the higher rate threshold at £50,270, the inheritance tax nil rate band at £325,000, and the residence nil rate band £175,000. Plus, everything from ISA allowances to the annual gifting allowance, the high-income child benefit tax charge and the personal savings allowance remain the same.
The tax take will rise to its highest percentage of GDP since the Second World War, and it’s not just that we’ll all have to pay more tax, 4 million more people will be dragged into paying tax, 3 million more into paying higher rate tax and 400,000 more into paying additional rate tax.
6 April: National Insurance for self-employed people is cut
Class 2 National Insurance contributions will be axed altogether (saving an average of £186 a year). The main rate of National Insurance contributions for self-employed people will also be cut by one percentage point, from 9% to 8%. This applies to profits of between £12,570 and £50,270. This will cut tax an average of £117 in tax for basic rate taxpayers, £322 for those on the higher rate, and £358 for additional rate taxpayers. Of course, frozen tax thresholds will mean they’re still worse off.
8 April: State pensions rise with the triple lock
The state pension will rise 8.5% in line with the triple lock. For someone on the full new state pension this will see their pension grow from £203.85 to £221.20 a week, and for someone who hit state pension age before 2016 their full weekly basic state pension will rise from £156.20 to £169.50.
8 April: Benefits rise with inflation
Those receiving working age benefits will have them increased in line with September’s inflation rate, which this year was 6.7%. Pension credit, meanwhile, will rise 8.5% in line with the triple lock.
1 July: Energy price cap changes
This is currently expected to fall very slightly again from the April level.
31 July: Payment on account deadline
Self-employed people need to make advance payments towards their tax bill.
1 August: Freeze on alcohol duty ends
In the Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt said alcohol duty wouldn’t be increased before this date. So this is the first date a duty rise becomes possible.
In September: 15 hours of free childcare from nine months
The second stage in the roll out of free childcare will see 15 hours of free childcare extended to children from the age of nine months.
10 September: wage figures
These are used as part of the triple lock for next April’s state pension.
1 October energy price cap changes
This is expected to rise as we head into the winter, but forecasts this far ahead need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
16 October: inflation figures
These are used as part of the triple lock for next April’s state pension, and for uprating working age benefits.
31 October: Deadline to file paper self-assessment tax return for 2023-24
We’re overwhelmingly filing our self-assessment tax returns online but those who prefer to do it on paper will need their returns to arrive with HMRC by this date.
1 December energy price cap changes
So far, we haven’t had forecasts for this period, although prices are hoped to be less volatile later in 2024.
17 December: The last possible day to call the general election
This would be exactly five years after the last parliament met for the first time after the previous general election – which by law is the last possible date the election can be called. If it was left to the last possible date, the election itself would be on 28 January.
31 December: The £2 cap on single bus journeys ends
The £2 cap on single bus journeys in England is expected to come to an end. It saved people 30% on the average fare.”
