US Shutdown no cause for panic (yet)

The US Government has begun its first partial shutdown in 17 years, following congress’ failure to agree a budget to continue its funding.

 

The S&P 500 closed down 0.6%, whilst the US dollar fell against sterling last night, as investors digested the news.  The market’s reaction to the shutdown has been muted and suggests investors are expecting a resolution to these negotiations.

 

Adrian Lowcock, Senior investment Manager at Hargreaves Lansdown says;-“Investors have become used to political brinksmanship in the US with negotiations going to the wire but each time a resolution has been found.

These negotiations are the warm up act. The bigger issue, in around 17 days’ time, is negotiations to raise the $16.7trn US debt ceiling. Failure to raise the debt ceiling and allow the US government to continue borrowing could force the country into a default scenario which could then have more serious consequences for investors.

A US default is highly unlikely but political negotiations could create volatility in stock markets.

This doesn’t look like a selling trigger. Investors should focus on their long term goals and use any short term weakness as opportunities to invest.”

The 2011 Debt ceiling

In August 2011 a similar scenario played out.  The S&P 500 fell 19.74% from its peak in July 2011 as the S&P credit rating agency cut their top notch rating for the US and investors sold out. However by the end of the year the S&P had recovered and ended the year up 1.46%.

Chris Saint, Head of Currency Dealing, Hargreaves Lansdown “The US dollar extended its recent decline against the pound (lows of US$1.6261) after the deadline was missed. The fallout appears to have been limited by hopes that significant damage to the US economic recovery will be avoided, assuming a resolution can be agreed upon very soon.  In September we saw demand for US dollars rise 29% on the previous month.”

 

At the time of writing, the exchange rate stands at:

 

         Interbank rate                   % daily change

Sterling / US dollar                          1.6242                                           +0.37%


Join Cosmo’s Online Protest For Equal Pay.

UNITE TOGETHER AND FIGHT FOR EQUAL PAY WITH COSMOPOLITAN’S ONLINE PROTEST

CALL FOR WOMEN TO TAKE PART IN COSMOPOLITAN’S CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE WIDENING PAY GAP

Cosmopolitan, the magazine for smart spirited women, has teamed up with a host of celebrities to lead an online protest via Facebook and Twitter to highlight the current 15% pay gap and urge women to fight for their right to an equal pay packet.

Cosmopolitan and its celebrity supporters will lead the protest with the hashtag #4Kequalpay spend it YOUR way, encouraging women to retweet and comment on how they would spend the extra money. ‘4K’ signifying the average amount of money that women are missing out on each year from their salaries.

The online protest follows the controversial moves announced recently in the Budget to cut salaries of public-sector workers, meaning the pay gap is set to widen with women bearing the brunt of the government’s austerity measures.

All tweets and Facebook posts will also include a link to the Cosmopolitan Equal Pay Petition, asking everyone to sign up to make it mandatory for companies who employ 250 people or more to carry out a public, annual equal-pay audit. Over 100,000 signatures need to be collated for the petition to be taken to David Cameron later in the year.

Louise Court, Cosmopolitan, Editor, said: “With the government recently announcing further cuts to the Budget and the likelihood of the pay gap widening further, it is time for all women across the country to stand up and take positive steps in finally getting equal pay for British women.”

Follow the Cosmopolitan Twitter for updates: @CosmopolitanUK

Portas review gets government approval

The Government has accepted recommendations from Mary Portas that are aimed at reviving the high street.

Under the recommendations, dedicated ‘town teams’ will manage high streets, a £10 million high street innovation fund will bring life back to empty shops and a National Markets Day will be created.

Natasha-Rachel Smith, spokesperson for TopCashBack, said, “It’s extremely important that the UK’s high streets are productive as a competitive environment in today’s retail sector. Although the most attractive deals and savings will almost always be found online, consumers will always need the requirement to access goods on their doorstep. This is particularly true for essential products and services in situations where the items aren’t available online as immediately as shoppers need them.

“Consumers will always be lured by online bargains but they will continue to need the high street to be the background canvass of their communities.”

Passengers Outraged As Rail Fares Set To Rise Above Inflation Again

Rail commuters are outraged as the so called ‘green’ government backed an above-inflation rail fair rise for already overpriced, overcrowded trains. Fares are expected to rise at least 8%.

The formula for fare increases is usually RPI inflation plus 1%, but for the next three years it is RPI plus 3%.

Rail minister Theresa Villiers said passengers were being asked to pay more for the next three years so that the government could “deliver a massive programme of rail upgrades.” However, Villiers was less than impressive while trying to defend the shocking rise in a BBC interview.

Rail fares for Londoners are also set to rise by up to 13% from January 2012, thanks to government changes to the rules on annual fare rise.

“These massive fare rises will be a disaster for people already struggling with rising costs, and risk pricing those on lower incomes out of jobs,” said Alexandra Woodsworth of the Campaign for Better Transport, who was protesting against the fare rises at Waterloo station today.

It is feared that some people will be priced out of being able to work.

Every New Year, train companies are allowed to push up fares based on the inflation rate published the previous August. Today, that figure was 5%.

Previously, the rule was that companies could only increase fares by 1% more than inflation, which would have seen bad-enough rises of 6% next year. But the current government raised the fare-hike limit to inflation-plus-3%, allowing for rises of 8% in early 2012. It also allows for rises of up to 8% above inflation on some routes, giving the 13% figure.

A 13% hike would see the current cost – £3832 – of an annual season ticket from Brighton to London rise to £4291.

The government blamed its lack of finances for the rail fare hike. Rail companies are subsidised by the government, which means unhappy commuters pay for it both through their taxes and when they pay for their fares.

Rail travel is notoriously bad in the UK. Rail journeys from London to Glasgow cost from £100-170 before these rises with trains often so overcrowded, it is usually standing room only. London is not much better, with people paying more money than anywhere else in Europe to ride in a carriage with no air conditioning and in worse conditions than a sardine in a can. Trying to get anywhere on the weekend is worse, as most lines are having maintenance, causing huge service disruption.

The Coalition government has promised to be a ‘green’ government, but rail fares are now so expensive that it is cheaper to fly, I know a number of people who do. Not so green after all.

Murdoch Update: News of the World Tapped Sara Payne's Phone.

Another awful twist to the phone hacking scandal today as Sara Payne found out that her phone had been hacked. The phone that had been hacked was given to her as a gift by Rebekah Brooks so she could stay in touch with her supporters.

The extraordinary access that the Murdoch family had to Cabinet ministers was revealed yesterday, more than two dozen private meetings between the family and senior members of Government were granted in the 15 months since David Cameron entered Downing Street.

Cabinet Ministers had over 60 private meeting with the Murdoch’s and the figure rises to 107 if you include social events. James Murdoch and Rebekah Brooks were given confidential defence briefings on Afghanistan and Britain’s strategic defence by Defence Secretary, Liam Fox.

George Osborne had 16 separate meetings since May 2010 with News International editors and executives, he also invited Elisabeth Murdoch to his 40th birthday party last month.
The Culture Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, dined with Rupert Murdoch within days of the Government coming to power, the minister to see Rupert Murdoch most frequently is Michael Gove, a former News International employee.

The list was released by government departments yesterday (Wednesday) and highlight the unhealthy relationship between News International and senior members of the Cabinet.

David Cameron said he met News International executives on 26 occasions since entering Downing Street.

To put it in perspective Mr Osborne met with representatives of The Daily Telegraph group on six occasions and The Independent, London Evening Standard twice. Mr Hunt met Telegraph and Independent figures twice each and the BBC 11 times.

Last night a spokesman for Mr Gove insisted that his meetings with the Murdoch’s were of a personal nature. “Michael worked for the BBC and News International and his wife works for News International now,” he said. “He has known Rupert Murdoch for over a decade. He did not discuss the BSkyB deal with the Murdoch’s and isn’t at all embarrassed about his meetings, most of which have been about education, which is his job.”

A spokesman for Mr Fox said that the briefings given to the Murdoch’s were given because of the “interest in defence matters” shown by News International papers.

The Chancellor had said he would be happy to talk about the meetings.

It was revealed today that the phone hacking inquiry might take longer than a year.

James Murdoch received unanimous backing today from the BSkyB board despite pressure to step down.

What’s next?