The Next Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis – We Have Learnt Nothing

Some lessons are never learned and the boom and bust of the housing market is one of them. As we finish one housing crash we are already setting ourselves up for the next one. The seeds for the next sub-prime mortgage crisis have already been sown.

It stems from a desire by all parties to encourage people to buy their own homes and keep house prices going up. This results in an unsustainable boom followed by a sharp correction, all to the detriment of stability and economic growth.

Everyone from the building companies, estate agents, mortgage brokers, banks, government, owners and even buyers all want to see the market rise. Prior to the crash we had mortgages being offered for 120% of a home’s value. We now have offers encouraging people to buy houses which are equally or more dangerous.

The reality of the situation is that house buyers (particularly first time buyers) are not earning enough to get onto the housing ladder at the moment. There simply isn’t the demand.

Desperate to sell the houses on their books, Estate agents and builders have been offering shared equity solutions to first time buyers. The buyer only buys a percentage of the property (making it more affordable and much easier for them to get a mortgage). They then pay rent to the building company on the percentage they do not own. The scheme is all over housing websites. The government has been encouraging this scheme. In fact it is taking part in it.

On the face of it the scheme looks attractive. I admit even being interested in it myself initially. However once you understand the motives behind it and the reality of it we see how dangerous it can be.

You can see how it can become very expensive for someone who takes on this scheme. They are paying a mortgage, rent and service charges, not to mention maintaining 100% of a property they don’t fully own.

Many newspapers were initially very critical, until building companies started taking ads out in their papers advertising the scheme.

The service charges and rent often rocket and the homes are almost impossible to sell leaving owners completely trapped even when they need to move in an emergency. You can read some people’s nightmare experiences here.

Now, in what can only be described as utter madness, the UK government’s latest plan is to guarantee 95% mortgages. The ‘New Buy’ or mortgage indemnity scheme (MIG) only requires a 5% deposit from the buyer and if they default the government will pick up the tab along with the bank.

The government is trying to artificially inflate demand in the short term to boost the construction sector and push house prices up so everyone feels wealthier. This should also boost consumer spending and the economy as a whole. But this is a typically short term politically motivated view. The current government cares nothing for a future crisis which might occur in 10 years’ time. At some point the market will have to correct to an equilibrium level and the more we inflate prices artificially the bigger that crash will be. All the jobs created will be lost along with many more as well.

Nothing has been learnt from the recent crisis. With a government guarantee, banks and mortgage brokers will be flogging mortgages to anyone they can. This is exactly what happened before the recent crisis in America. Just look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

When prices do start to fall owners will have no incentive to keep paying their mortgages as they move into negative equity. If house prices fall by 20% and you have only put down a 5% deposit what incentive do you have to keep paying the mortgage? As prices continue to fall this gets worse and turns into a negative cycle.

When the bubble does burst the ensuing crisis will be just like the recent one, except this time instead of the banks bearing the brunt of the loses, it will be the you and I the taxpayer.

Unfortunately we never learn from our mistakes. We must stop creating these damaging bubbles. We should just let the housing market correct itself naturally; unfortunately the government just can’t help itself. It is now just a matter of time before the next major sub-prime mortgage crisis. I just hope we can survive the fallout.

Leading scientists ask British public to measure their sleep

· International survey findings to be discussed at The Times Cheltenham Science Festival

· What is sleep, why do we need it and how much of it do we really require?

Researchers from the universities of Oxford and Munich have called on the British public to contribute to an international survey looking at the quantity – and quality – of sleep amongst the population.

Professor Russell Foster, Chair of The Times Cheltenham Science Festival, and Professor Dr Till Roenneberg from Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, who are both experts in chronobiology – the study of the circadian rhythms which govern our waking and sleeping patterns, and their interaction with daylight – will discuss the responses to the survey at the Festival in June 2012. The pair will discuss the regenerative powers of sleep as well as comparing and contrasting the sleep patterns of the UK respondents with their continental counterparts.

The survey takes just a few minutes to complete online, and asks questions relating to work schedule, differing sleep habits during the week and at the weekend, consumption of alcoholic and caffeinated drinks, exposure to cigarettes and the time taken to fall asleep each night.

So far, more than 65,000 people in Germany have taken Professor Dr Roenneberg’s simple online survey relating their sleeping habits, and the scientists are keen to capture more data relating to the British population.

Russell Foster, a professor of circadian neuroscience at Brasenose College, Oxford, and Chair of The Times Cheltenham Science Festival said, “We felt that the arrival of British Summer Time, with its lighter mornings and longer evenings – plus people perhaps feeling like they’ve ‘lost’ an hour’s sleep – was an excellent moment to get people thinking about the quality and quantity of sleep they get.

“With the help of this questionnaire, we aim to understand the underlying complexity of the biological clock by gathering a picture of everyday behaviour. We all know that individuals show distinct preferences for various activities over the course of a day. A simple example is the time at which an individual prefers to go to bed and get up. Collecting this information will help us understand how and why the biological clock ticks.”

Each participant will receive a personal profile which evaluates their chronotype, and compares their results to those of other participants. A person’s chronotype relates to their preference for mornings or evenings – those who are at their best at the crack of dawn are often described as ‘larks’, whereas people who brighten up in the evenings are known as ‘owls’.

Professor Dr Till Roenneberg, of the Munich Centre of Chronobiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, adds, “It will be particularly interesting to gather more information on British sleep patterns in order to compare chronotypes of people living in different geographical locations.

“This will enable us to consider factors such as longitude and latitude, which can make a difference to the amount of daylight to which people are exposed.”

People are encouraged to take the survey online.

Professor Russell Foster will be talking about the regenerative power of sleep at The Times Cheltenham Science Festival on Tuesday 12 June 2012 at 6:30pm.

Priority booking is open to Cheltenham Festivals Members from Monday 26th March, ahead of public booking from 2nd April. The full programme is available at www.cheltenhamfestivals.com/science

THE VOICE: WEEK 1.

Right!

Before we start, before we even think about starting and are still in bed scrambling for the snooze button, let’s get something very clear indeed.

‘The Voice’ ISN’T about finding a voice.

Let’s just knock that idea on the head and put it in a dark corner to come round in its own time and wander off unnoticed shall we?

The notion that this is all about pure singing ability and nothing else is so absurd that it’s forced me to use the words, ‘notion’ and ‘absurd’ and I’m not even in a period drama.

The number of indicators that disprove the title are far too numerous to list here but the opening couple of contestants pretty much said it all.

We open with a 17-year-old who’s first sentence is about how important songwriting is to her and how she’s always getting picked on.

BOOM!

That’s pretty much all you need to hear. Instantly we know that this, just like ‘X-Factor’ is about milking some undiscovered talent for phone votes. If you haven’t got a back-story that will have us all wiping tears from the screens of our mobiles then forget it.

Jessica played a Jessie Jay song- what were the odds? Sang about as well as your average teenager who can sing. Mascara flowed backstage and mindless teenies screamed out front.

What should have happened was the judges eventually turn around, once the singing has stopped, and tell her they didn’t pick her because even though she could probably get by as a performer, this show is all about The Voice and there are more chops in Paul McCartney’s fridge.

Instead, all four judges wanted to work with her like she’d just invented singing from scratch, and Will.i.am…Will.I.Am.. Will- sod it, Bill, offered her global success and record deals in every country he could think of before anyone else had even spoken. When they did, it wasn’t really worth it.
Hmmm. That was kind of easy. Well done Jessica- or ‘The New Whitney’ as we should probably call her. Bullseye! Lets send the crew home- job done! Lights off Tom, last one down the Grammies pays for the Chrystal!

Jessica, now, a middle-of-the-road, unheard-of teenager with a single, bog-standard performance to her name, has the unenviable task of telling someone who has produced Michael Jackson why she’s not picking him. It was like ‘Blind Date goes to Hollywood’ and little Billy was snubbed in favour of Miss. J. because ‘number one hits don’t matter’ to our little Irish Superstar. She’s ‘a songwriter’ and it’s all about ‘making music and sharing my message.’

WOAH!! No it’s not- not to us anyway! Not here on ‘The Voice’! Anywhere but here surely? Come on!
It’s all about THE VOICE isn’t it? I’m no vocal coach but I know she’s vocally about as unique as a pair of Crocs.

I had to take a moment. I had to slap myself in the face and grow up a little.
My hopes that this would carry the integrity the BBC usually floats above all other channels on, was misguided. How silly of me for thinking it might do what it says on the tin (what it ‘reads’ on the tin actually because tins can’t speak- but I digress) and be just about finding the best voice in the country. How naïve can I be?

If they wanted to find the best voice in the country they would have done it differently and would almost certainly be choosing mostly professionals why? Well because life’s like that. They’re professionals for a reason.

Don’t get me wrong, there are examples of undiscovered gems that only a talent show can unearth- over on the other side in the ‘shallow lands’ of ITV we had a teenage fat lad on BGT that had me crying so hard I got snot on the dogs.

HE should have been on The Voice- it was made precisely for people like him.
Even a half-deaf nobody like me could hear that his voice was up there- WAY up there. Better (in my view of course) than Russell Watson… now what’s his nickname again? And Paul Potts- not to be confused with Pol Pot under any circumstances, and even the Susan ‘Bovine’ Boyle. This kid has a truly amazing voice. But instead of having Tom Jones on his feet shouting the Louis Walsh anthem- “You’re what this show is all about!” He was having his chins stared up at by Carmen Electra who’s about as appropriate a judge of anything but nipple bronzer and smiling through ‘pout cramp’ as Jessie Jay is on making it in spite of being fat and ugly.

Breathe…. Find a happy place… it’s only TV.

So, with my new awareness of The Voice fully updated I watched on while, somewhere in my subconscious, there was yet another memorial service for a little bit of my soul.

Next up we had Sean- formerly of boy band ‘FIVE’… ‘5IVE’… ‘FIV5’?- sod it ‘V’. He suffered the ignominy of four chair backs and smiled through the tumbleweed. The judges turned and told him what an amazing voice he had and that they just ‘couldn’t see what they could do’ for him? Well picking him would have been a start. Jessie said she would love to listen to his voice all day, at home. Well, unless he comes round to fit her new kitchen, she’s not gonna get the chance now is she? His voice wasn’t great so, in this instance, they were right but the cracks in the premise of this show were already so clear it was like skydiving over the Grand Canyon and we were only two songs in. Sean could have had the voice of an angel but his story and his lack of anonymity had sealed his fate before he drew breath.

And so it went on, We had a lady with a good voice and a bald head who I, and I suspect the entire audience, felt a little robbed of their emotion by when she announced it was alopecia. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a horrible thing to happen to anyone, especially a woman trying to make it as a singer. But in the world of unintentionally bald women it’s something of a best-case-scenario.

We had an overweight, slightly effeminate Adele impersonator and Tom Jones fan. Surprisingly only one judge turned around- it was Tom… what did you say those odds were again? He was a good singer with a great personality. They all said they thought it was a woman singing and then Tom, clearly not on message, said he thought he sounded like him and, as the laws of inevitability crashed into his lap, then had to turn and ask the other judges if they thought he sounded like a woman too?

When Tom Jones has to ask people who have been chosen to judge singing talent if he sounds like a woman it’s time to throw your glitter wig into a bucket and ride out-of-town.

This is my biggest problem with ‘The Voice’- the judging process.

I like, and respect, all the judges and when I heard that TJ was one of them I instantly expected him to do what everyone wants from this show. I like Jessie and Bill and Danny from The Script. All quality judges- and not a Carmen Electra amongst them. This is what the BBC does but it usually makes its own programs and doesn’t buy them in. When it does we get this.

This was the first episode and by the end we already had Tom and Bill dropping names like they were playing Top Trumps and it had turned into a judge fight just like all the others that follow the laws as dictated by the much-thumbed ‘how to make talent shows’ by S. Cowell.

They’d run out of pleas, were bereft of ways to sell themselves to their prospective protégés and had to resort to flirting, begging and bragging by the end credits.

We’ve got an entire series to go yet!

Instead of the show allowing them to say, “Sorry mate but I can’t see how I’m going to discover you if you’ve already been discovered.” Which would be fair enough on the X-Factor. They have to keep it all about the singing, even though it’s clearly not, or they’ll get plebs like me complaining in our dozens. So someone with a voice like a toddler murmuring from the far end of a storm gets offered world domination and someone with a great voice but no back story will be told they’re ‘pitchy’ or not ‘leading’ enough instead by a woman who owes a large part of her success to skin-tight lycra.

I know I need to relax and just enjoy it. I will, I promise. But for now I can’t help but despair at what seemed like something new being the same old crap as everything else but with a new gimmick.

Shame really… still, can’t wait till next week!

Storm Launch New Range | Preview

I love watches. It must run in the family as my dad has well over 100. The first ever watch I bought was a Storm watch, it was silver with a big purple face. So it is fair to say I am a fan of the brand. I went along to The Sanderson Hotel to check out their new range.

Storm are always have cutting edge designs. Their watches are well made and beautiful to boot. Storm is the only recognised British watch brand on the market today. Storm is still quite young, it was launched in 1989. Their range has expanded to include not only watches but also jewellery, bags, eye wear, sleepwear and fragrances. All of which is sold in 45 countries internationally. Well, it’s enough to make you feel proud.

I will be honest and say that I did not know that Storm did perfume, but they do, for him and her. The packaging is slick (like everything with Storm) and the smell of the Touch and Electric are both divine.

The Touch gift set is only £19.99 for 100ml fragrance and 150ml of shower gel. It smells the right side of tropical with lemon, green leaf and tropical fruits on the top note with a blend of white jasmine, cedar amber and brown sugar. The make version runs along the same lines but is a but different with patchouli and sandalwood, ginger and lavender. Makes me want to eat it….

Another thing I love about Storm is that I am not allergic to any of their jewellery. I really love men’s watches on women, I am partial to a chunky watch, but love a slimmer, elegant one for evenings. I have chosen some of my favourites from the range. Which was a hard thing to do, as I love them all!

Featured watch: Atlas

Bion. £99.99

Black Out

Dualon

Elody Gold

A multifunctional timepiece with a pearl dial, sparkling crystals and stainless steel case and strap. The Elody is Storm Black’s Newest gem. It has Swiss movement and Storm Black’s signature Onyx set in the crown. This watch is perfect if you want a bit of luxury in your life. Price is £279.99 – £319.99.

Excalibur

Limited Edition with only 5.000 piece available worldwide. Has a wonderful fully exposed watch face showing it’s mechanisms. Also water-resistant up to 50m. Silver: £369.99

Kelli

This is very in at the moment. It embraces this seasons colouring blocking trends. Has cut away strap. £99.99

Trilogy

This is another limited edition piece. Only 3,000 made. It has 3 time zone, raised face, leather strap, stainless steel case and is water resistance up to 50m. Perfect for travellers. From £169.99

It is the Olympic year and Storm is a British brand, so it makes sense for the Nexon to have the colours of the British flag featured in the polycarbonate links in racing stripe form. RRP £109.99

The Una also has patriotic style. These stylish watches can be bought in red, white and blue. £69.99 – £84.99.

Storm also does some great bags for men and women.

And some great jewellery.

Thomas White – Yalla! | Music Review

In August 2010 Thomas White, after a decade on the road with The Electric Soft Parade, The Brakes and British Sea Power and following the death of his mother, took himself off on holiday. Firstly to Dubai, then onto Egypt. On arrival in Egypt, White realised he didn’t much like it and wasn’t having the time of his life. Fortunately the troubador was armed with an acoustic guitar and a laptop and so spent his days in his documenting backwards a story that has often been; the story of a man somewhere quite drab dreaming of glorious sunshine. White was somewhere beautiful in the sun but was dreaming of home; specifically Brighton in the drabness of autumn. Whatever the circumstances, though, a delicious record came of it.

White’s previous record, The Maximist, was his David Bowie moment, a bombastic stop of glam-punk. Yalla! is White’s Beatles moment. The spirit of Lennon and McCartney run down the spine of this record, as if they were sat in that hotel room in Dahab.  Opening track ‘All The Fallen Leaves’ oozes regret; ‘I’ll See Her Again’ is a tale of lost love that appears to have picked up the baton from Elliott Smith, the same one that was mistakenly picked up by Graham Coxon. ‘The Heavy Sunshine Sound’ is his finest Lennon/McCartney impression with the moods and shades turning from dark to light and back again as quick as his voice moves.

At times White sounds like he’s about to enjoy himself with a big soaring chorus but then he pulls it all back to the bleak; that post-tragedy feeling where life should never be enjoyed again and that any feelings to the contrary are self-indulgent. ‘I’ve Seen the Sunrise’ documents lost love and loneliness but muddles it with the highs and the feeling that all is not lost.

The one criticism of this record is that the pill tastes a little bit dull after 7-8 songs of the same shade. A stunning record but one to be eaten in reasonable sized chunks but if you’re feeling melancholic then pop it on repeat and it’ll soothe your soul.

Throughout Yalla! White seems as homesick-for and rooted in Brighton and his favourite landmarks that he lists, as it is possible to be. He’s a veteran of the music scene there having burst onto the scene aged 17 with the much-hyped Electric Soft Parade and having been around for over a decade and been in more bands than Mike Patton (possible exaggeration), it is easy to think of White as a veteran but at 27 you hope he’s just getting started and has enough melancholy to make a record like Yalla! at least once more.

Spring into Easter Sunday with Lunch at Babylon

Looking to banish winter blues and summon the spirit of the new season? Head straight to the award-winning Babylon Restaurant at The Roof Gardens in Kensington and treat the whole family to a memorable Easter.

To celebrate Easter Sunday, on the 8th April each guest will be treated to a complimentary Easter bunny rabbit shaped chocolate lollipop from a lucky dip. Each lollipop will have an envelope attached to it where guests will find out if they’re one of the lucky ones to win a fabulous mystery prize. Prizes will include 20% off your next Babylon booking, a year’s Club membership for the Private Members Club on the 6th floor, a VIP table for you and your friends in the Club to name but a few.

The delicious Easter menu offers a selection of favourite roast dishes including tender roasted Pork Belly with Bramley Apple Sauce or mouth-watering Roast Beef. All roast dishes are accompanied by sharing platters of seasonal vegetables and roast potatoes. With a menu bursting with equally enticing starters, vegetarian dishes, and indulgent desserts, the whole family will be catered for this Easter. Kids (and adults too!) will also be able to enjoy a visit from The Roof Garden’s very own magician Easter Bunny as they tuck in to a three course children’s menu priced at only £8.00.

The Babylon menu is priced at £26.00 for two courses and £29.00 for three courses. For reservations please call Babylon on 020 7368 3993 or visit Babylon@roofgardens.virgin.com

Frost editor chosen as one of Britain's female entrepreneurs.

Frost editor Catherine Balavage was chosen by the FSB as one of the top Female entrepreneurs in the UK and was featured in a book to celebrate International Women’s Day. The book can be viewed here. Well done Catherine!

Frost is looking for more stories of entrepreneurs. Do you own a business? Get in touch.

Deer Chicago – Lantern Collapse / Rolling of the Ocean EP | Music Review

I’m going to start by saying something totally unpleasant but very necessary. Once I have done this please read on. In fact I assume since you’re still reading this you’re probably in my thrall and that my subtle form of hypnotism has been successful. So please, read on. Ok, here comes the unpleasant bit; Deer Chicago sound exactly like if Biffy Clyro had made their first album using the singer from The Wombats.

Ok I’m glad we got that out-of-the-way. Ignoring that fact, this works. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. This limited-edition two-track EP was released in November by the Oxford trio and physical copies sold out almost immediately. It’s two tracks of fairly typical post-rock, quiet/loud with Jonathan Payne’s vocals flying excitedly over the top of them. What the band do well are volume spikes, long crescendos, and the cumulative effects of repetition over long periods with subtle changes. At the risk of boxing the band in, though, they sound like nice boys who you’d happily take home to meet your mother. Not the most alluring of things for a rock n roll band – if they can develop a nastier edge then expect to see them disappear like those other Oxford geniuses, Meanwhile, Back In Communist Russia, otherwise catch them while you can!